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The Coming Islamic Civil War.

  • the critics were right,…. and they were wrong because they misjudged their own cultural divisions. go back to the build up for the Iraqi war and recall one of the most famous reasons for opposing the invasion:

  • “if Iraq is invaded, the middle east will burn”

  • then there was the whole “clash of civilizations” argument of east vs west, christianity vs islam, etc, etc.

  • i always thought that those criticisms were completely overblown. what i understood to be the “arab world” led me to believe that the cedar revolution in lebanon, and a the removal of saddam would lead to a peaceful, prosperous and free middle east. even hamas’s election in gaza i took to be a good sign despite the fact that i dont agree with their cause or practices.

  • and i do believe that to this day.

  • but maybe i was a bit hasty. it looks as if there is one more step to be taken before all my hippy-loving/tree-hugging hopes for the middle east materialise.

  • while everyone has so far been occupied by the islam vs everyone else debate, i’ve been more interested in the potential sunni vs shiaa conflict that seems to be slowly materialising.

  • growing up a non-muslim here i’ve always been asked my religion, of which i have none. now that wasnt a problem cos i always had the “foreigner” tag on me first. but there was always a slight reaction when i said i wasnt muslim, almost as if the person asking had hopes i was,…… then was let down. over the years i’ve noticed that a positive ” yes i am muslim” response really does evoke a completely different reaction.

  • now thats not a problem, i know its more of a religious follower thing rather than a specifically muslim thing. christians, buddhists and greenpeace activists all do the same thing, subconsciously. like roaches we look for the familiar in a group. personally i also look for my own fellow roaches, stock market participants, hahaha perhaps the worst kind of roaches!

  • facial muscles betray ones subconscious, and very few actually dont give it a second thought when i tell them what i believe or dont believe in. those people i know i can talk to about religion.

  • but what happens when its a sunni kid asking a shiaa kid?

  • over the past month or so i’ve been hearing alot more about this stuff happening amongst your children here. and the actions of a child reflect the household in which they grow up, meaning what the fuck are the parents talking about?

  • amongst the grown ups i’ve been hearing more “them”s and “us”-es, more of “those people” and much more of “theyre just not right” from both sides of the camp.

  • there’s something brewing that i dont like the smell of.

  • for those that dont know, in a nutshell the divisions between the two sides is over the rightful successor to the prophet mohammed. one side believes it should be the prophets right hand man at the time of his death, while another believes the right goes to one of the prophets relatives. both sides have clear justifications for their beliefs, but from this central point onwards each side accuses the other of lieing, cheating, starting rumours, etc.

  • theres more than enough stuff to read about on the subject so i wont rehash it all here. but suffice it to say, the division is pretty serious on a fundamental level mostly because a simple case of succsession turned into a power grab after the prophets death. it has since snowballed to present day.

  • back to present day, alot of people are quick to jump onto the “blame-bush-for-invading-iraq” bandwagon, so its his fault if the middle east burns. however, the fact is that iraq was, is, and has always been apart from the rest of the middle east. it has always been a secular society where intermarriages between sects and whole bloody religions were a part of life. now that point you cannot argue in almost any other arab country. while it may exist, it doesnt exist to the extent as it does in iraq.

  • i mean it goes so deep that indian sailors who settled in basrah, were welcomed and wound up marrying local girls and integrating into iraqi society,…… which is a large part of why your diet comprises of so much rice……. look around, it takes thousands of gallons of water to cultivate rice,…. i seriously doubt your desert bedouin ancestors ate machbous laham back in the day.

  • so iraq to me is not a purely sectarian civil war. its a power grab whose main participants happen to be of different islamic sects. there is a difference. and atleast, thats what it started out as.

  • some will argue the point that saddam managed to keep a lid on sectarian strife. bullshit, if sectarian strife really did exist intersect marriages wouldnt have occured,…. much like it rarely does here. i will however concede the point that mutual hatred and fear of saddam kept the iraqi people together, but thats no way to live, and sacrificing generations of 20 million iraqis to future hussein family rule is too high a price to pay for the percieved stability of the region.

  • growing out of the power grab, sectarian differences are the first things to be exploited by the parties fighting for power in iraq. and saddly thats what has happened.

  • and its pulling in its neighbours because the powers that be in neighbouring countries are also exploiting your differences and emotions. your friday prayer mullahs and imams are just as guilty as your politicians spouting shit about supporting your shiaa/sunni brothers in iraq. politicians want you to vote for them and clerics want you to come to their mosque so they can brag about being the most popular. they are afterall only human, with all too human desires and perceptions of respect.

  • if anything, this sectarian division is what will burn the middle east. remember the balkans? well its not that much different when you look at the main players.

  • iran has always been the shiaa communities defacto spokesperson whether the global shiaa community like it or not. but then again no one has really listened to the rantings of iran until recently when ahmadinejad started exploiting the iraqi situation and the nuclear situation to divert attention from the fact that his oil rich nation is one of the poorest countries in the world. and if you dont believe me then why are DAY LABOURERS crossing into basrah for work?

  • saudi, being the custodians of the ka’aaba and mecca, and being predominantly sunni, is the defacto sunni spokesperson. and up until recently nothing much has come out of there regarding supporting their suni brothers.

  • until a couple of months ago when a saudi cleric started voicing his opinion that saudi should do so. warning number one.

  • warning number two came packaged in the mobile phone video of saddams execution. a guard started chanting ” moqtada,moqtada,moqtada!”

  • incase you didnt know, moqtada al sadr is a prominent shiaa cleric in iraq. the shiaa slums in baghdad were named after his father who i think was either gunned down or blown up. ( someone correct me if i’m wrong).

  • so what would the sunni arab streets be thinking: “we thought it was the damned americans who wanted to execute an arab on eid, instead it was the shiaa’s who wanted to kill a sunni on eid”

  • with a saudi/isreali deal potentailly on the table, or under it for the time being, how hard would it be for ahmedinajad to brand the house of saud traitors to the palestinian cause?

  • and saudi definately wouldnt want a nuclear iran on its door step unless saudi herself had nukes as a deterent. the whole nuclear issue has served to divide the shiaa sunni community as it is, and so far no one has died over it.

  • so what happens when they step up the rhetoric regarding iraq?

  • for a clue on how things would work out, take a look at lebanon in early ’06, or even take a look at lebanon’s own civil war. perhaps the ideological wars of the cold war would be a better case study, proxy wars in africa, direct conflict in vietnam and afghanistan. oh and dont forget the balkans.

  • the jews fought amongst themselves, and so too did the christians, some kept fighting up to present day in northern ireland. so it wouldnt be too surprising to see an all out conflict or an escalation of a war by proxy here in the muslim world.

  • humans, regardless of education, wealth or religion have an unbelieveable capacity for stupidity. 99% of the time we have to have a world war to tell us that war aint such a great idea. the west had their world war. the east had theirs. africa was subject to a war by proxy. the balkans too, done and dusted. it is only after massive slaughter that we learn that killing isnt good. and many times we forget that over the years, and need to be reminded, which is why wars have cycles, just like the stock market.

  • the only strategic location left worth fighting over is the middle east.

  • so the critics were right, the middle east will burn, but it will be the muslims carrying the torches and lighting the fires of other muslim homes. and it wont be a western-CIA-conspiracy because it will be muslim money paying for the torches.

  • there might not be a way to avoid it. perhaps it really is a case of “when” rather than “if”. the only thing you can do, as a people, and an individual is to scold anyone talking in terms of “us” and “them”.

  • because being an “us” makes it easier to demonise the “them”, which justifies the “killing in the name of” .

  • when was islams last civil war?

  • just cos it hasnt happened yet doesnt mean it cant or wont.

  • all it takes is one kid to smack another kid, and one word while doing it:

  • “kafir!”


chicken little here will be finishing off a track so watch your emails over the next couple of days,…. then its off to KL πŸ˜€



    • Spontaneousnessity
    • Posted January 4, 2007 at 4:33 pm
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    • Reply

    what’s new?
    these are just new incidents, but it has always been the case..

    well.. happy new year

  1. whats new is the prevalence and renewed influence of the militant factions within each sect. even the acceptance of such elements since everyones become desensitised to it these days until it happens to them.

    i wonder if the population of the balkans also said ” so? its always been like this”. the only thing that made a difference was someone was willing to pick up a gun. and that i’m afraid has become the norm in iraq. so where next?

    i’m not saying it will be tomorrow, it might even be 50 years away or more, but something will break the camels back so to speak πŸ˜›

    happy new year to you too πŸ˜€

  2. damn this is a long post…..

    i’ll read it when i get back from supper! πŸ˜›

  3. Very true, sadly. Very smart. Love the way you write.

  4. thats a long dinner youre having KD πŸ˜›

    and thank you very much june πŸ˜€

  5. i wonder why the biggest conflict most people have with is Islam, yet these people (especially fanatics) still act the way they do.

    and it’s not exactly for human rights either.

    shit man. u gotta read about the Article 11 case of 2006 frm bodoland. it’s a big indication of how soon we are going to hell

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