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damn,….

if you compare then to now, the dow also hit an all time high just before things started to go sour.

at the same time, quite a few of the biggest one day gains happened then, as they are happening now.

the question is, how far along the chart are we?

would you say we’ve just begun or that it started last year?

will the global village-ness of our world today make this one shorter and quicker, or is it going to be longer and worse?

more questions than answers at the moment.

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10 Comments

  1. And your point would be . . . . ?

  2. lol youre right, perhaps i should elaborate.

    i shall edit.

  3. I am guessing your point has to do with the comment “market doesn’t recover until 1954” but these are different times – communications, interoperability, interconnectedness, and international cooperation to correct problems . . . I am hoping we will have increased limits, oversight and transparency. We can see what happens when we don’t!

    So much of this is perception based, not reality based, don’t you think?

  4. well the 1954 recovery is one thing,…

    but i’m more interested in the trip down. what started in 1929 lasted 3 years, almost 4 before a bottom was put in. so many many black fridays.

    yes alot of it is perception based, but then again the market as a whole fundamentally works on perception. prices are not prices for today, but rather prices a few months or more down the road. numbers aside we’re all really only trading ideas 😛

    i’m hoping youre right in that today things are different, but the differences you mention could just as well make things worse,.. eg increased over sight might make the drop shorter than 3 years, but then the road to recovery could take longer than it did back then.

    in many things, yes we’re smarter than we were back then,… but in terms of money and markets, lessons are forgotten too soon, which is one of the few things you can actually predict 😛

    i saw the author of the forgotten man on the daily show the other day. her book is on the great depression, and she reckons alot of the actions taken then are similar to those being taken now more or less. it would be interesting to actually read it and its deifnately on my shopping list.

    i just find it funny that everyone is saying its like the 29 crash, then turning around and saying its probably over after a good day or two,…then doom and gloom again after a bad day or two,… had bloomberg/cnn been around then i’m pretty sure the coverage would have been almost identical. 😛

  5. on another note… do you like this site:
    http://chartsandnumbers.com/ ?? what do you think?

  6. yup i do, i drop by there every now and again.

  7. It’s so sad that our collective memory (or maybe it’s just mine…?) is apparently only short term. Like you said, everyone says it’s just like 1929, then the next day the market it good and people go, “ah it’s over.” Then another drop and panic & gnashing of teeth all over again — vicious cycle.

    Of course I learned about the Great Depression in school, but I hadn’t realized it took three years from the initial drop until things hit bottom. Hmm, that’s a sobering thought.

    Well, whether he wants to be in that position or not, (like Joe the Plumber), Warren Buffet is the one to keep an eye on. His activity makes the news nearly every evening, and as long as he’s still buying, it seems that many of us are at least holding onto the sense that we’re going to be okay, things will turn back around.

  8. yeah buffett is perhaps the best indicator around,… when things are too expensive you wont hear about him for years cos the media find his investing style boring.

    but when things crash, he gets busy, and hes only a handfull of people on wall street who really do invest longterm, where long term is measured in years and not months 😛

  9. I just get the feeling that things all happen faster now – crashes, recoveries – it’s almost as if we have only short-term memory capability.

    When it is all so perception based, it can turn on a hair.

  10. things are happening faster mostly cos of the 24 hour global news networks, and the fact that everyone can buy and sell at the click of a mouse.

    its nuts now compared to before which makes it quite scary.


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